So far, the transition in Bolivia’s energy matrix has been focused on the integration of renewable energies into the electricity sector.
ISSUE 122 | 2023
ENERGETIC(*)
The plan is to change the country’s electric matrix by 2025, with the use of only 22% fossil fuels for electricity generation, consisting of 74% hydropower and 4% renewable sources (solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, etc.) (Ministry of Energy, 2017). The milestones set for the year 2020 and 2025 can be seen in Figure 1.
The disparity between the electric power generation matrix and the energy matrix is that electricity represents only 11% of Bolivia’s total energy consumption. In this regard, discussions about projects or methods to make the country’s electricity sector cleaner are relatively minor when compared to the magnitude of the overall challenge. In terms of energy quantity, the aim is to make 5 million BOEs (Barrels of Oil Equivalent) “clean,” but there is no mention of the 40 million BOEs representing the rest of the fossil energy consumption.
RAPID TRANSITION MEASURES
Achieving the goals set by the IPCC to limit global warming to 1.5°C requires rapid and far-reaching transition measures. This necessitates that global net human-origin carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions decrease by approximately 45% by 2030 compared to 2010 levels and continue to decrease until reaching “net zero” around 2050 (IPCC, 2018).
This implies that any remaining emissions would need to be compensated for by removing CO2 from the atmosphere.
In this global context, there is a consensus that one of the most critical and vital measures is to act on the energy sector globally and stop consuming fossil fuels since they are the primary source of CO2 emissions. On the other hand, humanity requires energy to live and develop, so it is necessary to decouple energy generation from CO2 production. This means transitioning from an energy matrix based on fossil fuels to one based on clean energy, a process known as “energy transition.”
DECARBONIZING THE ECONOMY?
The challenge of directly decarbonizing the energy sector means decarbonizing the economy due to the link between energy sources and their use in different economic sectors.
In technical terms, this implies replacing the use of fossil fuels with technologies that enable the use of renewable energy sources. In the current state of technology, this primarily involves the widespread use of electricity. This process is often referred to as “electrifying” all sectors of the economy (residential, transportation, industry, commerce and services, construction, agriculture, and mining). The use of biofuels is questioned because a life cycle analysis shows positive emissions.
RADICAL CHANGE
As you can understand, the change is radical, and it must be accomplished in the shortest possible time. A problem in this regard is that Bolivia’s energy sector does not perceive the need for this work or the urgency of addressing this climate emergency. Although Bolivia contributes minimally to global CO2 emissions, this fact has been interpreted as a “right to pollute,” which has driven projects for the exploitation of fossil energy resources for export (hydrocarbons) and electricity generation.
As an example, the portfolio of projects executed in the electric sector shows new projects in renewable energies (solar and wind) executed to the media, which by the end of this year total 170.6 MW in photovoltaics. Considering projects executed and under construction in wind energy, it will reach 159 MW, for a total of 329.6 MW of solar and wind energy.
In contrast, during this same period, thermoelectric projects totaling 1,677 MW have been executed. In other words, the execution of new electricity generation projects based on fossil fuels has been five times greater than that of solar and wind energy projects. The contradiction between plans and reality is evident. Annex 3 provides a detailed view of the portfolio of projects executed, under construction, and under study by ENDE (National Electricity Company).
Moreover, although there are discussions about energy transition initiatives in Bolivia, they still lack technical support to show the real scale of the challenge, time limits, and how to approach this process.
Finally, a topic that cannot be ignored in the context of this analysis is that, until 2020, ENERGETICA claimed that Bolivia’s energy production in recent years was constantly increasing, solely due to the increase in natural gas production. In this context, it can be concluded that, with the decline in gas production, the country will also begin to reverse this situation, probably complicating electricity exports.
