The book “La Bolivia del futuro: innovación y diversificación post-extractivista” (The Bolivia of the Future: Innovation and Post-Extractivist Diversification) presents a reflection on the Bolivian economic model and the need to emphasize productive development without abandoning the exploitation of natural resources such as gas. The compilation, coordinated by Daniel Agramont, emerges in a context of energy and fiscal crisis, where the country faces the effects of decades of a policy centered on hydrocarbon rent.
ISSUE 147 | 2025
Vesna Marinkovic U.
Agramont explains that Bolivia is experiencing its fourth major economic crisis, driven by falling international commodity prices and a state structure overly dependent on gas revenues. “We forgot about the productivity agenda,” he notes, recalling how the abundance of dollars from hydrocarbon exports shifted production and industrial development toward a service- and public-spending-based model.
The book proposes a pragmatic post-extractivist vision not one based on abandoning the exploitation of natural resources, but on diversifying the economy through activities that generate income, employment, and environmental sustainability. Among these are electromobility, green hydrogen, the circular economy, tourism, green finance, and sustainable agro-industrial value chains.
For the authors, the country’s immediate challenge is to rebuild its productive apparatus. This implies resuming a modern industrial policy, promoting innovation, and removing state barriers that hinder investment. “It’s not about prohibiting extractivism, but about producing more and better with added value and social responsibility,” summarizes Agramont, emphasizing that productive development must be the core of a new Bolivia for the 21st century.
GREEN HYDROGEN: A STRATEGIC BET FOR BOLIVIA’S ENERGY FUTURE
As part of The Bolivia of the Future, energy specialist Juan Pablo Calderón offers a strategic perspective on productive development based on a new energy matrix, in which green hydrogen is presented as a viable alternative to ensure both domestic supply and the generation of foreign currency for the country.
“Bolivia cannot produce anything without energy,” stresses Calderón, noting that natural gas currently the basis of 80% of the energy matrix is a finite, non-renewable resource. For this reason, he proposes beginning as soon as possible a gradual substitution process to diversify energy sources and, at the same time, replace the revenues once derived from gas exports to Argentina and Brazil. “We need sources that generate both energy and dollars,” he emphasizes.
He agrees with Agramont that the proposal does not imply abandoning hydrocarbons or mining in the short term, but rather designing a mixed and comprehensive model capable of combining traditional production with new clean technologies. Calderón acknowledges that the energy transition will take time but warns that the country is already running late. “The best day to start was yesterday,” he says, reminding that Bolivia should have redefined its exploration and exploitation policy when gas reserves began to decline in 2014.
“…the country must begin an economic transition now, complementing its extractive base with new sources of income…”
The author argues that green hydrogen could become the cornerstone of this transformation, offering an exportable and sustainable alternative that would progressively replace dependence on fossil fuels. However, he warns that if no action is taken soon, by 2028 or 2029 the country could face a critical gap between supply and demand, forcing it to import gas.
“We still have an opportunity to reactivate production and plan the country’s energy future,” concludes Calderón, stressing that energy diversification is not only a technical challenge but an urgent necessity for Bolivia’s economic stability.
AN URGENT TRANSITION: FROM GAS TO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
In response to Juan Pablo Calderón’s reflections, economist Daniel Agramont complements the energy perspective with a reading rooted in political economy. He emphasizes that the current crisis has deep roots in Bolivia’s extreme dependence on natural gas throughout the 21st century. “The boom we experienced was due to high international prices and the proven reserves we had; gas meant dollars, energy, and public policy,” he explains.
He recalls that for several years the country generated over USD 6 billion annually from gas exports while importing gasoline and diesel for only about USD 1.2 billion. “YPFB had a surplus of USD 5 billion, which went to the Central Bank, and with that, the State financed highways, industrial plants, social programs, and even the Túpac Katari satellite,” he points out. But that dependence clouded long-term vision: “Everything depended on gas even electricity, diesel, and gasoline because they all relied on gas dollars.”
Today, with declining reserves and a growing shortage of foreign currency, the country faces a dual threat: an energy crisis and an economic crisis. However, Agramont reiterates that it is unrealistic to think of an immediate “post-extractivist” scenario without hydrocarbons or mining, as these sectors still generate employment and foreign income. “Saying there will be no more investment in hydrocarbons or mining would be condemning the country to every-man-for-himself,” he states, also warning about the advance of illegal gold mining in the Amazon, with severe social and environmental impacts.
In this context, he proposes the need for short-term measures to stabilize the economy while “planting the seeds of change.” Among the alternatives, he suggests boosting tourism by taking advantage of the Viru Viru airport and an open skies policy, promoting green hydrogen as a clean energy source, and fostering sectors such as the circular economy, agroindustry, and green finance.
“We are in an inevitable transition,” he concludes. “As long as gas, hydrocarbons, and mining remain our main activities, we must allow new alternatives to grow alongside them. If we act today, in five years we will be able to say that we diversified the economy, generated jobs and energy, and began to change the course of the country.”
INVESTMENT, GAS, AND TRANSITION: A NEW BALANCE FOR BOLIVIA’S ECONOMY
The closing exchange between Juan Pablo Calderón and Daniel Agramont reinforces a central idea: Bolivia faces a structural urgency. If the country does not act soon, the economic and energy crises could worsen in the coming years. “We will no longer have the ace up our sleeve of a marginal increase in gas production,” warns Calderón. That is why, he stresses, it is essential to think about the future with a national vision that transcends five-year political cycles.
Both experts agree that progress cannot be achieved without private and foreign investment. They note that Bolivia has gone a decade without attracting capital and currently even shows negative levels of foreign direct investment, according to ECLAC studies. The lack of legal security and the absence of protection treaties have driven investors away. “We urgently need gas, more formal mining that pays taxes and generates jobs. Without private and multinational investment, it will be impossible to move forward,” asserts Agramont.
The book The Bolivia of the Future argues that hydrocarbons and mining must remain the foundation of national development, but with a different focus: sustainable, diversified, and aligned with new productive development policies. This implies enacting new hydrocarbons and mining laws that modernize regulations, build confidence, and attract responsible investment.
Given this scenario, the authors insist that the country must begin an economic transition now complementing its extractive base with new sources of income: industry, tourism, renewable energies, green hydrogen, and the circular economy. They believe that only through long-term vision, foreign investment, and sustainable policies will Bolivia be able to avoid a deeper crisis and rebuild its productive future on more solid foundations.
“Today, with declining reserves and a growing shortage of foreign currency, the country faces a dual threat: an energy crisis and an economic crisis…”
